The good times are never meant to last, especially when they were never there in the first place. Donald Trump, of course, has known this for a long time.
I, on the other hand, learned this lesson more recently—the hard way.
The saga began on October 24, 2025, when I gloatingly wrote of the cross-border alliance between Western New York and Southern Ontario, the backdrop being a World Series appearance by the Toronto Blue Jays.
In keeping with Western New York tradition, those Blue Jays searched far and wide but ultimately found a creative and heartbreaking way to lose.
But that was the least of my problems.
Aside from the fact that no one cared, there was another issue. I had left out some key information in that article, information to which Trump has been privy all along.
On the Canadian side, a certain figure—perhaps the most important one—is not particularly inspirational. That figure, as you might have guessed, is GDP per capita. Using 2023 data, the per-capita GDP of Canada as a whole is about $54,000. Seven of its ten provinces—including Ontario and Quebec—rank below West Virginia. In fact, if Canada were a US state, its ranking would be clearly ahead of only one—Mississippi.
On the American side, an adjective that few would use to describe the cities of Buffalo and Rochester is prosperous. Using 2021 data, among 382 metros, the per-capita GDP in Buffalo and Rochester is 85th and 102nd, respectively. Even worse in the eyes of Trump is that both cities are in a blue state, located in counties that vote blue, with mayors that are blue (Democrat). As an added twist, Trump once attempted to purchase the Buffalo Bills, only to be outbid by the current ownership.
All of the above, coupled with the standard disdain Downstate New Yorkers have for anything Upstate, has set the stage for today, November 2025.
In the world of Trump, if someone—particularly a perceived enemy—is struggling to breathe, rather than provide oxygen, one should carefully wrap their hands around the loser’s neck, accelerating either death or concessions.
And in this particular case, the president has the joy of making one simple maneuver to choke two victims.
That maneuver: tariffs.
Canada knows that its largest trading partner can cripple the Canadian economy with these taxes, leaving it little choice—at least in the short term—to concede rather than die.
Meanwhile, economics and pride have combined to change Canadian behavior. In other words, crossing the Niagara River into Western New York is no longer on the to-do list.
According to The New York Times, numbers from Visit Buffalo suggest that under normal circumstances, Canadians are responsible for 35-40 percent of the region’s annual tourism revenue.
With that percentage shriveling, these are the new numbers:
- Canadians now represent less than 3 percent of visitors to the Buffalo AKG Art Museum, down from 7-10 percent.
- The Buffalo Bisons of Triple A baseball have seen Canadian ticket sales drop from 25 percent of total down to 10 percent.
- The local children’s museum is budgeting for the same type of drop.
- An outdoor concert venue and the regional aquarium have experienced a 50 percent decline in Canadian visitors.
- An outlet mall on the border estimates a similar decline.
Western New York, already short on air, is suffocating.
Those whose lives rely upon the aforementioned cross-border alliance know that Mr. Trump is winning.
As he said on January 6, 2021, he always does.
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